Archive for April, 2007|Monthly archive page
Blogging corporations and CEOs
The NewPR Wiki is an interesting wiki dedicated to blogging and other forms of…you guessed it…new PR. The best features seem to be the robust lists of corporate and CEO blogs. Blogs are normally used to keep track of things like news and gossip, but they are also really good for sneakier stuff, like doing diligence on investment opportunities and keeping tabs on potential competitors…
Human Computation, Game Design, and Behavioral Economics
The philosophies generally associated with the University of Chicago usually orbit around free markets, rational actors, and economic efficiencies. These were generally borne out of the Friedman & Stigler cohort and the Chicago School of Economics which reached its peak during the mid-80′s still is a dominant force in economics, politics, and law today.
An interesting spin-off of the classic Chicago school of thinking here has been the Behavioral Finance movement piloted by Richard Thaler in the GSB and by Cass Sunstein in the School of Law. The behavioralists generally think that free markets are all well and good, but that people simply don’t always act in perfectly rational ways. They try to and categorize ways in which people generally deviate from rational behavior so that modeling and predictive techniques can be formed around how people DO act, as opposed to how they SHOULD act. One of the classic models that has emerged from this school of thinking is the Prospect Theory, which models the fact that humans are generally more adverse to losses than they are to gains, i.e., a normal person would feel more pain from loosing $100 than joy they would feel from gaining $100, while a perfectly rational actor would give the same slope coefficient to losses as they would to gains.
Another interesting model that has come from this school of thought is the impact the framing of a question or situation has on the response it generates. For example, people are likely to not be neutral between a 25% chance to win $50 and a 50% chance to win $25, even though the expected payouts are the same ($12.50). Similarly, studies have shown that people tend to anchor expectations to numbers they have recently heard or seen. Smart attorneys attempt to use this heuristic in their closing arguments by referencing numbers near where they would like the jury award to fall, e.g. a attorney who wants a hundred million dollar reward in a pharmaceutical trial would be smart to talk about the hundreds of millions of people who could have been potentially hurt by a drug, thus anchoring the jurors’ minds around numbers of that size.
Anyways, what got me thinking about this whole subject was a reference to the Mechanical Turk on Guy Kawasaki’s blog. Now Guy was a little late to the Mechanical Turk party, as the comments to his post point out, but one thing I noticed in the comments were several references to the Mechanical Turk being a failure. I hadn’t given it much thought before I watched the video below. The classic Mechanical Turk task is paying users $0.005 to tag , or describe, a photo with text. Until a photo has been tagged, a computers currently have no way of telling if the picture is of a boy, a dog, or a airplane. There are some people that will tag photos for pennies, but it isn’t terribly rewarding and it’s not a great way to make any money. But, as you’ll hear in the video, if you frame the same task in the context of a game, you end up having to cut people’s playing time off after fifteen hours because they like it so much.
The video is long, but basically this guy Luis Von Ahn designed the ESP Game and Peekaboom which tagged more photos for free than the Mechanical Turk will ever even come close to seeing. Some recent posts on the Lightspeed Ventures blog have also piqued my interest about game design and its place in social networking and web applications in general. One of the posts is about Yelp harnessing game design to get users to do what they want them too (create listings, contribute reviews, etc.). I think LinkedIn has done a fabulous job of this as well. I still love making connections on LinkedIn but never once have I really gotten any real benefit from it…I just like watching my counter go up. Yahoo! Answers and Amazon’s Askeville are also great examples of game design getting people to do things. Every day on thee sites thousands of people answer questions posed by complete strangers to accrue millions of points that have no more value than a video game score. Nutty.
Edit: Thanks to Jeremy Liew at Lightspeed for the shout out about this post.
Webkinz = traffic
Check out the traffic explosion I got from my post on Webkinz yesterday (Saturday, from FeedBurner):
It will be interesting to see what happens today! I’m pretty sure these are all people hitting Google to try to figure out how to buy Webkinz for their kids. A commenter on my previous post indicated that the Webkinz site is free for a year and it stays free if you buy more Webkinz…but what if you can’t find any Webkinz? Genius!
This is a really great example of viral marketing. Adding a site where you can buy things for your toy is great, but allowing kids to interact online through their toys is even better. At the end of the day, this is a chat room/social network for kids, and the subscription fee is buying a Webkinz toy. It’s cool that Ganz, a family owned toymaking company based in Toronto, figured this out, and not an entrepreneur in the Valley.
JotSpot/Google screenshots
My recent post about being frustrated by Google’s lack of application integration got me thinking and I remembered that I created a JotSpot account for a side project before Google bought them. Turns out it’s still alive…which is nice to look at, but it’s super frustrating because I’ve wanted to start wikis on several occasions over the last months and have had to use inferior products. The features for this look pretty awesome and perfect for small business. I’ll be interested to see how good the bug tracker is. As pissed as I am at them dragging their heels, I can guarantee I’ll use this product when it (re)launches.
Interesting that it looks like they’ll be charging for the service…very un-Googley. Also strange that there is a spreadsheet app but no sign of a doc app. Maybe this is what they are waiting on.
[I use Blogger, owned by Google, to run blog. Apparently they didn't like me posting these screenshots and they edited them out. Thanks Google!]
A history of home values
I saw this on the Freakonomics blog…pretty interesting stuff. Click the image to see a larger readable version.
Webkinz = genius
A couple of months ago, a professor of mine was talking about his kids’ obsession with something called “Webkinz” and how he and all the other parents of kids his age in his town would rush to the store when word got out that a new batch of Webkinz had come in. At the time I didn’t think much of it, other than laughing at the thought of my professor having to burn over to the local mom & pop toy store to get his kids new plush toys.
This was my introduction to Webkinz, and the last time I thought about them until today when I was reading a post over at the Lightspeed Ventures blog about the recent ComScore numbers. According to ComScore, Webkinz.com gets the 28th most monthly visits per user on the web. After digging around on Webkinz.com a bit, I now see why this is the case. When you buy a Webkinz stuffed animal, you can then “adopt” the animal online via the Webkinz site. This creates a virtual world for your pet, complete with Happy, Health, and Hunger meters which decrease if you don’t exercise or feed your pet in “Webkinz World”…which obviously costs money. Imagine all the five year olds out there waking their parents up on Sunday morning telling them that Scruffy’s Hunger meter is low and that they need to buy him a cheeseburger in Webkinz World. Genius!
Webkinz is owned by the privately held Ganz company based in Toronto…
eBay v. Tiffany update
I’ve mentioned in the past that I get a lot of search engine traffic from folks looking for information on eBay v. Tiffany & Co., the case pending trademark infringement case in the Southern District of New York filed by Tiffany & Co. against eBay. The case seems to be on schedule to start in trial next month (5/14). I’m guessing the result won’t hurt too much for eBay, but as I have mentioned in the past it may be the first time that a pure trademark case involving a web service/ISP has made it to court. Gucci v. Hall settled, and there the SDNY denied a motion to dismiss filed by Mindspring arguing that the CDA gave ISPs immunity for trademark violations. Sorry I have nothing spicier to report, but I thought it would be helpful to give an update.
John Edwards feeling pretty
I have nothing against John Edwards, but this is one of the funniest YouTube videos I have seen yet. Thanks to the WSJ Law Blog for the tip!
Google continues to acquire…and not to integrate.
Google’s had a recent spurt of activity with their potential $3.1 B purchase of DoubleClick, a partnership deal with ClearChannel, and their acquisition of Tonic and announcement of a PowerPoint competitor.
I have been using Google Apps for Your Domain and Google Docs and Spreadsheets a lot lately and I really wish that Google would focus on integrating the +80 products they already have instead of continuing to grow their portfolio. To date the only product they have officially shut down in Google Answers. They bought YouTube but still have Google Video running. I can login to Apps for Your Domain directly but I can’t use that login through Gmail. I have an old JotSpot account and I can see through that account that Google has some awesome features in there, but they haven’t opened up JotSpot since they bought it over 6 months ago and they have no wiki product in Apps for Your Domain or Docs and Spreadsheets…but both of these are supposed to be one-stop-shops for small business information infrastructure.
Grrrr…….
GigaOm: FreeConference meeting with FCC chair today
Sometime Wednesday afternoon, if all goes as scheduled, representatives and lawyers for a group of Iowa rural telcos and their Internet Free-Calling partners will meet with FCC chairman Kevin Martin, to present their side of an ongoing battle with AT&T and other large telcos.
From GigaOm, history here.
RIM/Crackberry: "catastrophic infrastructure collapse"
RIM/Blackberry is currently experiencing a “catastrophic infrastructure collapse” in the Northern Hemisphere. Yikes. RIM down 2.1% in pre-market trading. Mine isn’t working. Is yours?
Where are you?
I was flipping through my FeedBurner site stats today and noticed a couple of random places in my “Top Cities” statistic that piqued my curiosity and I checked my Top Cities list over the past month and saw some interesting results. My top 10 cities by readership over the last 30 days:
- Chicago – 14.8%
- New York – 10.0%
- Washington – 5.4%
- San Francisco – 4.8%
- Woodside – 4.8%
- Oakland – 3.3%
- San Luis Obispo – 2.7%
- Hayward – 2.7%
- Atlanta – 2.4%
- Los Angeles – 2.4%
The other 47% are spread out over the US and internationally. My readership “nationality” over the last 30 days:
- United States
- Canada
- Serbia
- Germany
- England
- Australia
- Italy
- Belgium
- Singapore
- Latvia
- Spain
- Uruguay
- France
- Israel
- India
This is all based on what FeedBurner tells me and their methodology very well may be screwy, but I’m happy to remain blissfully ignorant for the time being. Pretty cool stuff.
ODesk: 750,000 hours and $10 M in ’07
TechCrunch is reporting that ODesk, the tech outsourcing platform, has channeled $10 M and 750,000 hours in ’07 already. That averages to $13.33/hour. Not too bad if you are a developer in India or Russia, which is where the majority of the ODesk contractors reside…and not too bad if you are looking to hire a tech contractor for cheap…but not so good for the domestic tech folks, although they seem to have more work than they can shake a stick at these days.
ComScore on Firefox
The ComScore guys, in the shadow of their pending IPO, have fired up a blog. They set the bar quite high for themselves with their first post in which they show that Firefox users tend to be younger, more wealthy, and more male than IE users. ComScore has reams of interesting data, so hopefully their posts will be frequent and as interesting as this one. Hat tip to Fred Wilson for spotting the blog.
$3.5 M violin + Joshua Bell + subway stop = ?
Amazing article in the Washington Post I found through a post by Steven Levitt on the Freakonomics Blog (“What happens when a maestro plays the subway?“). The Post got Joshua Bell, arguably the world’s greatest living violinist, to play the most complex and difficult classical pieces of music possible on his $3.5 M violin (crafted in 1710) for 45 minutes in a DC subway station.
The results? $32 in tips, $20 of which came from the one person who recognized him. Less than 10 people stopped out of the +1000 that walked by. The whole post article is really interesting, but if you don’t have time to read it skip to the end and watch the last video which recaps the whole 43 minutes. The videos aren’t embeddable so I can’t post them here. Pretty amazing stuff.
Aggregate Knowledge raises another $20 M
I just learned of and posted about Aggregate Knowledge yesterday, and today I see they raised another $20 M from DAG on top of their initial $5 M from Kleiner. They should be able to make some scary good algorithms with all that loot…
DAG has an interesting model – they do follow-on investments for A list VCs.

LinkedIn opens call center in Omaha
LinkedIntelligence reports that LinkedIn has opened a call center in Omaha…is this what they are using that $13 M on?
The Netflix Prize & Aggregate Knowledge
I have been learning a bit about the interesting statistical & programming challenges involved in the creation of recommendations, like those produced by Amazon regarding what sort of books, CDs and other products a user may be interested in based on what that user has purchased in the past as well as what other users who have purchased similar items has liked, etc. Apparently these are some of the priciest and most difficult algorithms to write and they are extremely valuable when they work.
Like Amazon, Netflix offers recommendations to users. They have their own algorithm called Cinematch, which, according to Wikipedia, produces recommendations that are a 9.6% improvement over a straight average of user ratings. The Netflix Prize is contest the company has organized that will give $1,000,000 to the creators of an algorithm that offers a 10% improvement over the 9.6% improvement that Cinematch can already attain. The current standings can be seen here. The current leaders have reached a 7.1% improvement. Apparently Cinematch itself was improved on in 6 days.
Aggregate Knowledge is a Kleiner backed start-up trying to commercialize algorithms like these. Pretty interesting stuff.

eBay announces "Proactive Fraud Reduction" program
eBay announced yesterday a “Proactive Fraud Reduction” program. Very interesting timing with their pending court date with Tiffany’s where they are being sued by the jewelry manufacturer for trademark infringement. The announcement is extremely vague, but it seems that “items most favored by fraudsters” will not be viewable for several hours after listing. No details are given about what will happen during the lag time. I’m guessing eBay will work with manufacturers like Tiffany’s and let them approve listings before they are publicly viewable on the site. A solution like this will keep the ball in Tiffany’s court to determine whether an item is real, but will give them more control over listings than they currently have. It will be interesting to see how this works out. I’m guessing Tiffany’s will want stronger features that will put eBay on the hook for review, a result that would be a huge blow to eBay’s current model. I love the superfluous “Proactive” in the name of the program – perfect for lawyers and PR.
Proactive Fraud Reduction
Today I want to let buyers and sellers know about another security measure we’re taking. For safety reasons, items reportedly most favored by fraudsters may not be viewable for several hours before the listings are indexed into Search results. These new listings are still viewable on the site through My eBay or if you search for the specific item number; however, they are not immediately visible through a keyword search or Browse.
To maximize exposure for these listings and ensure that buyers who browse by category see these items, we’ve made an important change. Any listings impacted by this review process will appear in the “Newly Listed” sort based on when they are made visible in Search (as opposed to when they are listed.) This ensures they will appear at the top of default Browse results – as well as within the “Newly Listed” sort option for Search – where they belong.
What kinds of listings will be impacted?
Unfortunately, it’s not possible for us to give you criteria, because that information could be used by scammers to work around our Trust and Safety efforts. Overall, however, we expect this security measure to impact only a fraction of listings.
Strangely, it still seems that no one else is writing on this case. I found out about the eBay announcement because I got a spike in traffic from an eBay message board post that links to my previous posts on the Tiffany’s case. I guess I’m becoming the authority. Next step…profit!
AT&T: "Free call services have cost us $250 M in ’07"
GigaOm is reporting that AT&T has stopped blocking freeconference.com numbers but that “free” call services have cost the telco more than $250 M this year alone. It also seems that AT&T has dropped their lawsuits against the arbitraging telcos and is instead trying to get legislative relief.
The history:
Rural telcos on Iowa and the Dakotas have relationships with businesses that send calls through their networks. Freeconferencecall.com and Freeconference.com have conference bridges that use rural phone numbers in these areas. Users call the numbers, get “free” conference calling, and the call rainmakers and rural telcos get termination fees that come from an antiquated part of the US telecom structure that subsidizes rural telcos for calls that are routed through their areas. The fees are supposed to incentivize rural telco development. A while back AT&T started blocking freeconference.com numbers, then freeconference.com sued AT&T for not paying their bills.
AT&T has now stopped blocking the numbers but is putting on the full-court lobby press. I’m guessing their cries will not fall on deaf ears, although any sort of fee structure jiggering will impact the telecom structure as a whole, not just these arbitrageurs, so any change will be tough to just slide in. Reps from all rural states in Washington will have a lot to say on this one.

Edit:
From freeconference.com today (4/10/07):
Cingular and Qwest Are No Longer Blocking Your Calls!
Based on what Cingular’s Office of the President describes as “an overwhelming response from customers”, they have ceased blocking calls to our service. Qwest has also stopped blocking. This is all due to the loyal support you have shown FreeConference by protesting these carriers’ actions directly. Over 4,000 of you responded to our last note and went directly to the FCC site to register a complaint!
As reported in the LA Times, the FCC has said that ALL call blocking actions will cease until they can permanently resolve these service issues with AT&T/Cingular, Qwest, and Sprint.
Unfortunately, Sprint is still trying to disrupt a few of your conference calls, while hiding behind claims of congestion and busy signals. If you have a story of customer service runarounds with Sprint, please contact us and/or the FCC and remind them that not all carriers have stopped abusing their customers.
To ensure all of your Sprint calls go through, we now routinely include alternate numbers in your confirmation e-mails for scheduled service, and also post numbers that are not blocked for reservationless customers on our site. As a result, most calls are going through and our service has nearly returned to normal.
Your FreeConference Team is dedicated to bringing you simple, convenient and reliable conferencing services at the lowest cost possible. We appreciate your support and look forward to serving you well for years to come.
Your FreeConference Team
Game over for Last.fm and Pandora?
Just when I was getting into Last.fm’s streaming broadcasts, RIAA’s SoundExchange goes and raises the broadcast royalty rate, blowing up their business model (~$0.01/hour in royalties per user for streaming music). I knew I was late to the party…
Sam Zell & the Tribune deal
Interesting post on Sam Zell‘s legal background and the recent Tribune deal announcement on the WSJ law blog. They quote some other WSJ article on Zell’s background that struck several chords with me personally and professionally:
When he was a student at the University of Michigan School of Law, Mr. Zell spent part of his time managing apartment buildings, so he had contacts in real estate. But he had every intention of carving out a career in law. After graduation, he joined [Yates Holleb and Michelson] in Chicago. The starting salary was $116 a week, but an ambitious young lawyer could supplement that by bringing new business to the firm.
“I spent my first week drafting a contract,” Mr. Zell recalls. “It was deadly.” That weekend, he got in touch with some of his real-estate contacts, and “the following Monday I brought in my first deal, an apartment project in Toledo, Ohio. The partners liked it so much they all invested.” Thanks to deals like that one, Mr. Zell earned $100,000 his first year out of law school — $93,000 in commissions and $7,000 in pay — more than any of the firm’s senior partners. Never again would he formally practice law.
Comscore IPO
Web traffic aggregator Comscore has filed to go public. They had revenues of $66.3 million in 2006, and about $5.6 million in operating income. It will be interesting to see how they are received. ComScore is a neat company that provides a phenomenal product – definitely the most accurate and well respected traffic measurement source. They have a large panel of folks who give them their demographic information and have downloaded a form of opt in spyware that tracks where they go online. They then can cut their data in very interesting ways to give info to investors that base decisions on web traffic trends, as well as marketers looking for sites that target specific demographics.
While they generate great data, there are inherent flaws in this system, namely that they are only able to track traffic from those that download their spyware. So, their panel is skewed towards those that don’t care about downloading spyware (novice web users) and those that might want to download their app in order to impact the ComScore rankings (webmasters). Matt Cutts of Google has a great post summarizing his view on “an unnamed web metrics businss” and their interactions with Google in the early days here.
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